Story by Ken Duke | Photos by Tanner & Travis Lyons
Color me lucky. I’m watching the action at the 2026 NPFL Championship on Smith Lake in Alabama from the FullComm Media production booth in Cullman, Alabama. The big brains that bring you the live feed are here with me. In the adjacent room are Luke Dunkin and Fat Cat Newton, offering analysis, insight and levity for the day’s activities. They have big brains, too.
It’s not a bad setting.
But for the moment at least, my mind is on the water, watching the 41 pros battle it out for the platinum NPFL trophy and $100,000 first prize.
Unofficially, Corey Casey is leading, but it’s tight, and it feels like the right time to talk about who’s in the hunt to win this thing. Truth is, it’s not “anybody’s ballgame.” You can make an educated guess as to who has a puncher’s chance and who needs a mass outbreak of food poisoning that keeps the rest of the field off the water for the finals.
First, three-day tournaments with five bass creel limits — like all NPFL events and the Bassmaster Classic — are rarely volatile events with lots of lead changes. I’ve made a study of such things through the decades, and I wouldn’t mislead you.
Did you know that in NPFL history, 31% of Day 1 leaders go on to win and 78% of eventual winners are in the top five at the end of Day 1.
Did you know that in NPFL history, 63% of Day 2 leaders go on to win and 94% of eventual winners are in the top five at end of Day 2.
So, it is far better to the hunted than the hunted in a bass tournament. Every ounce you have is an ounce you won’t need as time starts to run out.
Now let’s get into some details. There is a calculable number that informs us as to how far you can trail going into the last day of a multi-day tournament with a five bass limit. Simply put, it’s this: To have a realistic chance to win going into the final day, you must be within the weight of big bass to the leader.
Here at Smith Lake, the big bass of Day 1 weighed 5 pounds, 2 ounces. We’ll round that to 5 pounds. The formula — which has been established over decades — says that if you trail the leader by more than 5 pounds, your chances of winning are almost nil.
There is an exception to the rule: If you’re fishing a stingy body of water — where limits are the exception rather than the rule — and there are some really big bass to be caught, the leaderboard can be volatile.
But the conditions for the exception to the rule do not exist this week at Smith Lake. Limits are the rule, not the exception … and there are no really big bass coming across the scales this week.
Therefore, I’d be very comfortable saying that the eventual winner of the 2026 NPFL Championship is within 5 pounds of the leader going into Day 3 and that he’s also in the top 5 of the standings.
That’s what history tells me. That’s what the percentages tell me.
I wouldn’t bet the farm on it ,,, but I would certainly bet on it.
