Story by Ken Duke | Photos by Tanner & Travis Lyons
There are two big battles that will shake out at Stop Six of the 2024 NPFL season on Lake Murray in South Carolina, December 11-13.
First, one angler—almost certainly either Drew Cook or Kyle Welcher—will win the prestigious Progressive Angler of the Year title, becoming just the fourth angler ever to claim the award.
Second, 41 anglers will punch their tickets to the 2025 NPFL Championship on Lake Hartwell next October.
Since I covered the AOY race at some length about a month ago, we’ll use this space to dig into the battle for berths in the Championship.
And, truth is, of the 40 or so spots available in the Championship, most are already locked up … or nearly so. Brandon Perkins is in as defending champion, and the five anglers who have won regular season events so far this year are in via the win-and-you’re-in policy. That includes Will Harkins, Mike Corbishley, Patrick Walters, Gary Adkins, and Nick Brown.
Perkins and the regular season winners are in … as are the top 40 finishers in points, so the largest number of anglers who could qualify for the 2025 Championship is 46, but there won’t be that many because most of those winners are also going to finish in the top 40 and such “double qualifiers” do not expand the field size under NPFL rules.
Here’s where the winners currently rank in the AOY race:
Harkins 8th
Adkins 23rd
Walters 25th
Corbishley 36th
Perkins 43rd
Brown 62nd
Assuming the standings do not change for anyone in this group and that the winner at Lake Murray also finishes in the top 40 of AOY, the Championship field will consist of 42 anglers—the top 40 in points, plus Perkins and Brown. If the Murray winner is not in the top 40 and not one of the anglers listed above, the field will be 43 anglers.
Got it?
Now let’s take a closer look at the top 40.
The angler currently in 40th place—Douglas Chapin of Wisconsin—has 1,026 points. That’s roughly 205 points per tournament (a 46th place finish). If that holds true for the finale, 40th place will be 1,230 points. It’s a rough estimate, but it’s probably close. Might be a little higher. Might be a little lower.
That’s the first number we need to keep in mind.
To calculate the second number, we start with the number of anglers expected to be in the field of anglers at Lake Murray—117. And since the NPFL scoring system awards 250 points for first place, 249 for second, 248 for third, etc., it means the minimum numbers of points an angler can earn at Lake Murray is 134.
But we’re still not done.
Every angler in the AOY race who competes at Lake Murray and who is within 134 points of 1,230 is almost a lock to qualify for the 2025 Championship. So … who is that?
Well, it’s everyone currently in the top 21 of the AOY race. If those anglers simply show up at Lake Murray, they’re very likely in the Championship.
As you move down the ranks, of course, the anglers will need to do more than just show up.
For example, if you’re Corey Casey of South Carolina and currently in 30th place with 1,066 points, you’ll need an 87th place finish or better to have a good shot at the Championship.
Douglas Chapin—once again, the angler in 40th place—has 1,026 points and needs at least a 47th place finish to have a realistic shot at the Championship.
The lowest ranked angler in the field who still has an outside shot to qualify on points is North Carolina’s Jesse Wise in 48th place with 981 points. By our math, he has an outside shot to get into the top 40 … if he finishes second at Lake Murray.
One spot behind Wise is Seth Ellis with 980 points. He enters knowing he probably must win at Lake Murray to qualify for the 2025 Championship. Anything less and he’s almost certainly out.
So, you can see that the real race is at the very top—between Drew Cook and Kyle Welcher—for AOY and between 30th and 49th place for the last berths in the 2025 NPFL Championship.
There’s a lot on the line at Lake Murray next week. Stay tuned!
