Story by Ken Duke | Photos by Tanner & Travis Lyons
A couple of days ago, I wrote a story about the race for the Progressive NPFL Angler of the Year title, and I called it a “battle of attrition.”
I made the point that roughly half the field is eliminated from AOY contention after the first event, and that half of those would be eliminated by the second event, and so on.
I got some pushback on that from friends and fans. At the time, I based those statements on my study of the sport and my experience following the major tournament trails. I certainly remembered the late, great Aaron Martens having a bad season opener one year on the Bassmaster Elite Series, only to roar back and win AOY.
Of course, that was the exception, and I think fans tend to look at that situation in the wrong way. What was shocking was not that Martens made an amazing comeback after an ugly start. The amazing thing was that one of the greatest anglers of all time had such a bad start in the first place. The second most amazing thing about that season was that all the anglers who were ahead of him after the season opener slipped enough to open the door and create such a memorable comeback.
That’s what was unusual!
But getting back to this NPFL season, I realized that I hadn’t marshaled all my arguments about the battle of attrition, and I had failed to do that for one simple reason. It’s an incredibly tedious grind to sit down in front of a computer, eyes bleary as I look at an Excel spreadsheet and enter all the requisite data from the first four seasons of the NPFL.
But now I’ve done that. It took me a chunk of last night, all of this morning, and three hours of the afternoon, but I can tell you that the battle of attrition is even more unforgiving than I imagined.
In my article a couple of days ago, I thought the trimming of the AOY contenders went something like this:
After Event 1, half the field is basically eliminated — taking us from 118 anglers down to about 60 contenders.
After Event 2, we cut it in half again — down to 30.
After Event 3, cut it in half again — down to 15.
After Event 4, it’s down to about eight anglers.
After Event 5, it’s down to just four anglers.
Here’s what I learned by looking at NPFL history.
At the first event of their AOY season, every AOY in league history finished 15th or better. Kyle Welcher (2024 AOY) did best; he was seventh after Event 1. Gary Adkins (2022) did the worst; he was 15th. Keith Carson (2021) was 13th, and Todd Goade (2023) was 10th. Of course, under the NPFL scoring system, none of them trailed the leader by more than 14 points.
After Event 2, all the eventual AOYs moved up! Welcher jumped up to second. Carson was third. Goade was fourth. Adkins was sixth … though he trailed by 26 points after two tournaments. Adkins was farther back any AOY has ever been at any point during his AOY season.
After Event 3, Adkins held his position in sixth place but gained ground in points. He trailed by just 16. The other three AOYs all moved up yet again. Welcher took the points lead. Carson and Goade moved up to second place and trailed by six and eight points, respectively.
After Event 4, Goade and Welcher were leading. Adkins (who won that event) moved into second, and Carson slipped to fourth.
After Event 5, none of the AOYs was worse than second place. Adkins and Goade were leading.
I realize this may be hard to follow. I think the takeaway is that AOY abhors a bad start. If you want the fancy gold trophy—the best-looking prize in bass fishing—you must start fast. None of the AOYs started worse than 15th. None ranked lower than sixth after two events, and none was more than 14 points out of the lead going into the final tournament.
Could that change in 2025? Absolutely! The field is better than ever this year and not nearly as top-heavy as in years past. And without the safety rails of forward-facing sonar, it’s easier to stumble and have a disastrous finish. I can still foresee almost anyone in the top 20 coming on to claim the title this year.
But is the 2025 Progressive NPFL Angler of the Year currently in the top six?
History is nodding its head.
