Story by Ken Duke | Photos by Tanner & Travis Lyons
The Progressive Angler of the Year race fascinates me. It must interest you, too, or you wouldn’t be reading this.
I often describe the AOY race as a battle of attrition. Sometimes it’s less about the anglers who do well in every tournament than it is about the anglers who do well until … they don’t.
At the beginning of the season, there were 118 anglers dreaming of AOY honors. Now, I truly believe it’s down to just three who have a legitimate shot at the gold shield trophy.
1. Musical Chairs
Incredibly, since Stop 2 on Lake Norman, the top three anglers in the AOY standings have remained the same: Greg Hackney, Patrick Walters, and Kyle Welcher. They have played musical chairs in those three positions. Now, after Stop 4 on Oklahoma’s Lake Eufaula, Welcher leads with 974 points. Hackney and Welcher are tied with 969 points, but Hackney claims the tiebreaker because he’s weighed in 1 pound and 15 ounces more than Walters so far this season.
In other words, the race is very, very close.
But it was almost closer. On Day 1 of the weather-shortened tournament on Eufaula, Hackney accidently brought six fish to the scales and was penalized 2 pounds. Without the penalty, he would have finished second instead of fifth and he’d have 972 points instead of 969.
2. Who’s Still In the Hunt?
With due respect to the rest of the field, I think there are just three anglers with a legitimate shot at AOY—Welcher, Hackney, and Walters. Brandon Cobb is currently fourth, but he’s 38 points behind Welcher, and the top trio is just not going to leave the door open far enough to let someone else slip in and take the title.
Sure, one of the top three might tumble in the two remaining events … maybe two of them … but not all three. They’re too talented, too consistent, and too focused on winning the title. They all want it … a lot. For Welcher, it would mean back-to-back NPFL AOYs, for Hackney, it would make him the only angler with AOY titles on three major tours (he’s already won with FLW and BASS), and for Walters it would exorcise the demons of some close calls.
3. Who has the Edge?
Anyone who bets on bass tournament performance is probably suffering from a debilitating head injury. There are just too many variables, performance is too inconsistent, and a talented angler can win anywhere if he makes good decisions or bomb anywhere if those decisions go wrong.
That said, Hackney, Walters, and Welcher all have considerable experience on the St. Lawrence River, where Stop 5 will take place. All three have posted top five finishes there in Bassmaster Elite Series competition, but the one who’s done the best most recently is Walters.
In three Elite events on the St. Lawrence in July or August, Walters has finished in the top 12 all three times. Does that give him an advantage? No. In those events, forward-facing sonar was allowed and played a huge role. It’s prohibited in the NPFL.
Then there’s Logan Martin Lake in Alabama, where the season will end in September. It’s not far from Welcher’s home, and it’s where he finished 7th in last year’s season opener. Walters was 43rd. Hackney likely has limited experience there.
Does that give Welcher an edge in his effort to repeat as NPFL Angler of the Year. Probably, but betting on Welcher equals betting against Hackney and Walters … and that’s not smart.
4. Movin’ On Up!
The other part of the AOY standings that deserve a close look is that area around 40th place—the cutoff for qualifying for the 2026 NPFL Championship.
By winning at Eufaula, Chad Marler punched his ticked for a spot in the Championship. He also moved up 35 places in the AOY standings, from 72nd to 37th. He can fish the rest of the season with a lot less pressure. We know he’s talented. Let’s see what he can do with a free roll.
Mike Quinlin, Hunter Baughman, and Brandon Classon all made big moves up the leaderboard. Quinlin moved up 30 places to 54th. Baughman elevated 27 places to 52nd, and Classon jumped 25 spots to 55th. All now have a fighting chance to make the cut for the Championship.
5. Going Down
Of course, for every spot an angler moves up, other anglers must move down. The pros falling the farthest at Eufaula were Ricky Robinson—who missed the event—(35th to 66th), Jesse Wise (36th to 62nd), Tim Cales (19th to 43rd), and Scott Hamrick (32nd to 56th). Hamrick was ill throughout practice and the tournament but hung in there to accumulate some points. After all, there are no do-overs in professional bass fishing.
All those anglers are still alive when it comes to making next year’s Championship, but they’ll need strong finishes at the last two tournaments on the St. Lawrence Logan Martin.
6. No More Big Swings
Finally, there’s this. As the season progresses, it becomes harder and harder to make big moves up or down in the AOY standings. Jumps or dives of 25 or more places happened for half a dozen anglers at Eufaula. It probably won’t happen for anyone at the St. Lawrence. There are just too many points already on the board, and too few left to accumulate. It’s part of the reason I think only three anglers have a shot at AOY, and why anyone outside the top 60 or so is going to have an extremely tough time squeezing into the top 40 and qualifying for the Championship.
Anglers more than 30 or 35 points outside the top 60 should be “swinging for the fences,” “going for broke,” “leaving it all out there on the water,” and whatever other bromides you’d care to throw in here.
That’s about their only chance.
