Story by Ken Duke | Photos by Tanner & Travis Lyons
Recently, I wrote a piece about the Progressive Angler of the Year race and how it’s whittled its way down to a three-angler battle between Kyle Welcher, Patrick Walters, and Greg Hackney.
In this article, I’m going to take a broader view of the battle for the 40-odd berths in the 2026 NPFL Championship (date and location to be determined).
I say “40-odd” because there are not a fixed number of spots in the Championship. It could be as few as 40 anglers or as many as 47. Right now, if forced to guess, I’d say there will be 42 anglers in the 2026 Championship.
Five anglers are already qualified. They are the winners of the first five regular season tournaments of 2025: Jason Christie (Santee Cooper), Greg Hackney (Lake Norman), Scott Canterbury (Douglas Lake), Chad Marler (Lake Eufaula), and Drew Cook (St. Lawrence River).
Four of those six (Hackney, Canterbury, Cook, and Christie) are also locks to finish in the top 40 of the AOY standings, thus “double-qualifying” for the Championship. The other (Marler) won’t double qualify on points, but that hardly matters since double qualifiers do not open up additional spots in the Championship for anglers outside the top 40.
Also earning an automatic berth in the 2026 Championship will be the winner of the 2025 Championship that’s coming up on Oct. 3-5 on Lake Hartwell.
Unless someone currently mired in the middle or bottom of the AOY standings wins at Logan Martin, we’ll have a field of 41 or 42 for the 2026 Championship—Marler plus the winner of the 2025 Championship plus the top 40 in AOY.
Who will they be, and how many points will it take to get there?
Well, the guesswork that follows here is just that—guesswork—and it is not official. Nevertheless, it’s fun to speculate, and I can guarantee the math that follows (or something like it) has been done by every angler who still thinks he has a shot to qualify.
Let’s start with the basics. The points total needed to be inside the cut at 40th place is roughly 1230. How did I get that number? I took the total number of points for 40th place right now (that’s Andrew Upshaw with 1016) and divided by five (the number of tournaments already in the books for this year). That gave me 203.2. I rounded up to 205, just to be a little on the safe side.
Two hundred and five times six (the number of tournaments in the season) is 1230. That’s our benchmark. If an angler finishes the season with 1230 or more points, it’s very likely he qualifies for the Championship. But remember, the actual number could wind up being higher or lower. I’m just trying to get us in the proverbial “ballpark.”
Next, we look at the NPFL scoring system. A tournament winner gets 250 points. Second place gets 249, third place gets 248, and so on. Let’s assume there will be 110 anglers in the field at Logan Martin. That’s important because it tells us the minimum number of points that an angler can amass just by showing up. With 110 anglers in the field, that number is 141 points.
Still with me? Good!
Now let’s look at the AOY standings and add 141 points to everyone’s total. It puts the top 16 anglers over the 1230-point mark. Those 16 anglers are essentially a lock to qualify for the Championship. They would probably have to miss the Logan Martin tournament entirely to fall out of the top 40.
Beyond that is where things get interesting. About 50 points separate the anglers in 17th to 34th place, and almost all of them are going to finish in the top 40. A finish in the top 50 would probably lock it up, and a finish in the top 40 would certainly do it. Shane Lineberger and Shane LeHew had strong performances at the St. Lawrence and moved themselves into this group. I certainly look for them to make the Championship.
Below 34th in the current AOY standings is where things get dicey. The anglers ranking between 35th and 38th (J.T. Russell, Dustin Williamson, Robert Wroblewski, and Will Harkins) probably need a top 40 to cement their spot.
Todd Auten and Andrew Upshaw both had great finishes at the St. Lawrence and moved just inside the top 40. A top 40 finish at Logan Martin will keep them in the projected cut.
In 41st place is Darrell Davis—currently the “bubble boy.” There is no more painful position in the AOY standings than one place out of the Championship. If he can finish in the top 30—maybe 35—at Logan Martin, I like his chances to get in.
Cody Bird had a brutally tough tournament at the St. Lawrence and fell 19 places to 42nd. Two points behind him is Justin Kimmel in 43rd. They need to be in the top 30 or so at Logan Martin to make the Championship.
Justin Atkins in 44th made the biggest jump after St. Lawrence, moving up 24 places and giving himself a great opportunity to make the Championship. Atkins is from Alabama and won a Bassmaster Open on Logan Martin a few years back. If he doesn’t move up into the top 40 (and break another angler’s heart in the process), I’ll be shocked.
Timmy Reams is currently in 50th place, and he’s one of just four anglers to have fished every NPFL event. That string will probably end if he can’t finish in the top 10 at Logan Martin.
The anglers currently ranked 51st to 53rd will likely need a top five in the season finale if they hope to qualify.
The last angler in the field who could conceivably grab a berth in the 2026 Championship on points is Zack Birge in 55th place. It’s no secret that Birge is a great angler and better than his record indicates but missing a couple of days of competition at Santee Cooper and Douglas due to scheduling conflicts, and posting a disappointing finish in his home state at Eufaula, have him needing to finish in the top two or three at Logan Martin.
Anyone ranking below Birge must win to qualify for the Championship.
And they know it.
