Story by Ken Duke | Photos by Tanner & Travis Lyons
Even though the 2025 NPFL season is over, it’s not quite yet “in the books.” I say that because I’m still compiling data, entering data and evaluating data from the 2025 season. Most of that work is done, but the more I do and the more I see, the more I think of doing and the more I realize can be done.
It’s either a virtual or vicious cycle … depending on how you feel about statistics.
Benjamin Disraeli, a United Kingdom Prime Minister in the mid 19th century famously said, “There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.” I’m not sure what got Ben so riled up, but I love statistics. Used effectively, they tell a story, and the goal of every statistic should be to simplify a larger truth.
With that in mind, here are some NPFL statistics that I think may surprise, delight, illuminate, and even simplify. To me, they tell a compelling story.
1. Thirty-one percent (31%) of Day 1 tournament leaders go on to win that event, and that percentage doubles (63%) for Day 2 leaders. If you want to bet on who’s going to win, your safest bet is always to pick the leader. Always. He got off to a great start, is obviously “on” fish and has the inside track to the trophy. If you hear a pro say he’d rather be trailing going into the final round—the “hunter” rather than the “hunted”— he’s trying to tell you he is bad at math.
2. Seventy-eight percent (78%) of eventual tournament winners are in the top five at the end of Day 1. Ninety-four percent (94%) of eventual winners are in the top five at end of Day 2. Big comebacks are extremely rare. There are no two-out rallies in the bottom of the ninth.
3. Through 2025—i.e., the first five seasons of the NPFL—almost half (46%) of the anglers who finish in the Top 10 at the season opener will still be in the top 10 of the Progressive Angler of the Year standings at the end of the year.
4. Through 2025, 55% of the anglers who finish in the Top 20 at the season opener will end the season in the top 20 of AOY. And two thirds (67%) of the of the anglers who finish in the Top 40 in the season opener will finish the season in the top 40 of AOY.
In other words, whether you’re talking about an individual tournament or a full season of tournaments, the cream rises to the top early and stays there. And these numbers hold true for each of the top leagues. Yes, there are a few exceptions every year, but they are few … which is what makes them notable.
To succeed as a top professional tournament angler, you must get off to a strong start, whether you’re talking about the first day of a tournament or the first tournament of a season. Every competition day and every tournament may count the same as every other competition day and every other tournament, but with high levels of talent, there are precious few opportunities to make up ground. The most successful anglers do not take their foot off the gas. Not ever.
The field is too competitive, the prize money is too elusive, and the trophies are too few.
