Story by Ken Duke | Photos by Tanner & Travis Lyons
In just a couple of days, Stop 3 of the 2025 NPFL season will be underway. One hundred and fifteen professional anglers will launch on Douglas Lake and work to bring five bass to the scales that afternoon. Many—and probably most—will succeed at that basic task, but some will fail. The most successful will have 13 pounds or more. Many will probably have between 8 and 11 pounds. At the end of three days, the “smart money” seems to believe that it will take between 45 and 48 pounds to win. That’s 15 or 16 pounds per day.
With just three days and 15 available spots in the livewell, it’s critical to get off to a strong start. In fact, no NPFL tournament winner has ever ended Day 1 worse than 18th in the standings. That was Nick Brown last year at Lake of Ozarks, where the fishing was so tough that almost no one—including Brown—limited all three days.
Of the NPFL tournament winners, eight ended Day 1 in first place (30%). Eight more ended Day 1 in second place, and 22 ended Day 1 in the top five (81%).
There’s a lesson there. If you don’t start near the very top, it’s extremely tough to win.
We’re only two tournaments into the 2025 season, so we don’t have a lot of data, but we can still ask the question: Who’s getting off to the best start on Day 1 in 2025?
To calculate that, I’ll use a stat I call Angler Against Average (AAA) it divides an angler’s catch by the average catch of that day and comes up with a percentage. A plus sign (+) means the angler is above average. A minus sign (-) indicates a below average performance. It’s a tried-and-true method of putting a number on an angler’s report card that I believe is more revealing than mere pounds and ounces.
In crunching the numbers to determine who gets out of the tournament gate fastest, you probably won’t be surprised at the answers. The numbers next to the names represent how far above average they are on Day 1 as a percentage (i.e., if the average angler weighs in 10 pounds, and an angler weighs in 15 pounds, he scores +50 because his catch is 50% more).
Here’s Day 1 in 2025:
# Angler Score
1. Jason Christie +74%
2. Patrick Walters +71
3. Corey Casey +53
4. Jason Burroughs +51
5. Jordan Osborne +50
6. Buck Mallory +50
7. Hank Cherry +48
8. Greg Hackney +45
9. Shane Lineberger +44
10. Kyle Glasgow +41
None of those anglers ranked in the top 10 of that statistical category in 2024, though—in fairness—half of them are new to the league in 2025.
Of the anglers who were top 10 on Day 1 last year, every one of them finished in the top 10 of the Progressive Angler of the Year standings and so all are qualified for the 2025 NPFL Championship. It’s solid evidence that a strong start is critical.
Who’s the best on Day 2 … so far in 2025:
# Angler Score
1. Corey Casey +74%
2. Skeeter Crosby +64
3. Kyle Welcher +63
4. Kevin Rogers +60
5. Bill Lowen +58
6. Patrick Walters +56
7. Caleb Kuphall +52
8. Zack Birge +51
9. Jason Meninger +47
10. Greg Hackney +46
As you can see, Greg Hackney, Patrick Walters, Caleb Kuphall and Corey Casey are in the top 10 for Day 1 and Day 2. Not surprisingly, they’re also all in the top seven of the AOY race.
What about Day 3? Who are the best closers … so far? Here’s who’s got their “A game” on Day 3:
# Angler Score
1. Greg Hackney +93%
2. Kyle Welcher +77
3. Jason Christie +72
4. J Todd Tucker +61
5. Caleb Kuphall +61
6. Justin Kimmel +59
7. Hank Cherry +57
8. Hunter Sales +55
9. K.J. Queen +53
10. Zack Birge +52
At +93, Hackney has the highest daily score of any NPFL angler this year. The man can obviously smell blood in the water on the final day. And only Hackney and Kuphall are in the top 10 on all three days, though Walters comes close. He’s second on Day 1, sixth on Day 2, and 11th on Day 3. Zack Birge might be on all three lists if he hadn’t missed the first day at Santee Cooper.
Being a top 10 performer on all three days is rare. Last year, three anglers did it: Kyle Welcher, Drew Cook, and Joseh Webster. It should come as no surprise that they finished first, second, and third, respectively, in AOY.
