Story by Ken Duke | Photos by Tanner & Travis Lyons
Shake well.
That’s not just the instruction on your salad dressing. It’s what happens at the end of a tournament season … like the 2024 season of the National Professional Fishing League. After the postponement of the St. Johns River event due to Hurricane Helene, new strategies will emerge as we head toward the finish line. At stake is the Progressive Angler of the Year title and berths in the 2025 NPFL Championship.
Certainly, the anglers who were “on” fish at the St. Johns and who felt they were in a strong position to do well, are regretting the missed opportunity. Others were not looking forward to the challenges of the Sunshine State and may have felt like they “dodged a bullet” … if only for a couple of months.
Now, with the rescheduling of the St. Johns River stop, the next event will be on Lake of the Ozarks (October 23-25) and the finale will be on the St. Johns (December 11-13). Same venues, different order.
The AOY and Championship picture is getting clearer, as is the perspective on what it might take to reach those goals.
Kyle Welcher leads the AOY race by just five points over Drew Cook. Six other anglers are within 50 points of Welcher, and the next angler — Brock Bila who is 66 points back — calls Lake of the Ozarks home, so there’s still time and opportunity for someone to come from out of the pack and claims the league’s most prestigious title.
Fall on LOZ could be a shallow water slugfest — lots of quality limits coming from 6 feet or less. If that happens, expect Welcher to excel. Expect Cook to be terrific, too, but since he has the lead, it’s Welcher’s title to lose.
Cook needs to at least keep pace with Welcher at LOZ and then pass him at “home” in Florida. Cook may live in Georgia, but he’s an experienced and strong Florida competitor who may have an edge on the St. Johns. He’s also the strongest Day 3 performer in the league. Welcher is one of the best shallow water anglers on the planet. The AOY race should go down to the wire, and it likely will involve more than just these two.
Using past seasons as a measuring stick, it will probably take about 1,248 points to finish in the top 40 of AOY and earn a berth in next year’s championship. The scoring system works like this: The winner gets 250 points, second place gets 249, third gets 248, and so on. With an anticipated field of 120 or so, even the last place angler will get about 130 points.
If 1,248 is the magic number (and that’s just an estimate), it means that the current top 10 in the AOY race are in excellent shape to make the Championship. Jason Burroughs — currently 10th with 908 points — probably needs to average an 81st place finish to qualify. Since his worst finish all year is 69th and he has three top 15 finishes, you have to like his chances.
Moving down the AOY leaderboard, Wes Logan is currently 20th with 886 points. To get to the estimated threshold of 1,248 points, he needs to average a 70th place finish in the last two events. Dustin Williamson is currently 30th in AOY points and needs to average a 50th place finish to put himself in contention.
From there it gets even more interesting. Dustin Smith is currently right on the edge of the top 40. He’s 40th with 820 points. I predict he needs to average a 37th place finish at LOZ and the St. Johns to hold his spot.
All the anglers below Smith (with the exception of Brandon Perkins who is currently 62nd but has an automatic berth in next year’s Championship because he’s the defending champion) are on the outside looking in when it comes to making the Championship. The angler in 50th place will need to average a 24th place finish from here on out, and it only gets tougher from there.
If you’re currently 60th, you’ll need to average a top 10 finish in the last two events. And if you’re 69th or lower, you probably have to win one of the final two tournaments to snag a “win-and-you’re-in” slot in the Championship.
Five anglers are already qualified for the 2025 NPFL Championship. Brandon Perkins is in as the defending champ. Will Harkins, Mike Corbishley, Patrick Walters and Gary Adkins need only finish the season after winning regular season events at Logan Martin, Hartwell, Pickwick and Saginaw Bay, respectively.
Four events are in the books. There are two to go.
The 2024 season may be winding down, but it’s also heating up.
